This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Gyges’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Gyges | training | published before 2020 | 1,141 | 1,302 |
Gyges | validation | published 2020 | 84 | 83 |
Gyges | test | published after 2020 | 70 | 50 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Gyges | Fantasy Flight Games | 7.4% | 0.8% | 9.10 |
Gyges | ZMan Games | 6.0% | 1.2% | 4.95 |
Gyges | Miniatures Game | 17.9% | 4.0% | 4.44 |
Gyges | Rio Grande Games | 7.1% | 1.6% | 4.32 |
Gyges | Games With Solitaire Rules | 17.1% | 4.5% | 3.77 |
Gyges | Fighting | 23.3% | 6.6% | 3.56 |
Gyges | GMT Games | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.42 |
Gyges | Science Fiction | 19.0% | 6.9% | 2.75 |
Gyges | Fantasy | 26.4% | 11.0% | 2.39 |
Gyges | The Avalon Hill Game Co | 2.5% | 1.1% | 2.28 |
Gyges | Action Dexterity | 3.9% | 5.3% | 0.75 |
Gyges | Hexagon Grid | 8.1% | 11.9% | 0.68 |
Gyges | Movies TV Radio Theme | 2.9% | 5.1% | 0.57 |
Gyges | Paper And Pencil | 0.9% | 2.5% | 0.36 |
Gyges | Roll Spin And Move | 1.7% | 7.0% | 0.24 |
Gyges | Childrens Game | 1.0% | 8.3% | 0.12 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.995 | yes |
2 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.991 | no |
3 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.987 | no |
4 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.986 | no |
5 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.981 | yes |
6 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.979 | yes |
7 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.977 | yes |
8 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.971 | yes |
9 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.967 | no |
10 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.965 | yes |
11 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.964 | no |
12 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.962 | yes |
13 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.960 | yes |
14 | 2000 | 475 | Taj Mahal | 0.947 | yes |
15 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.944 | yes |
16 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.944 | yes |
17 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.942 | yes |
18 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.940 | no |
19 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.930 | no |
20 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.925 | yes |
21 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.925 | yes |
22 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.920 | yes |
23 | 2018 | 256643 | Neon Gods | 0.919 | no |
24 | 2007 | 28143 | Race for the Galaxy | 0.915 | yes |
25 | 2019 | 253574 | Crusader Kings | 0.912 | no |
26 | 2017 | 157979 | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | 0.907 | no |
27 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.904 | yes |
28 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.902 | yes |
29 | 2018 | 255692 | New Frontiers | 0.899 | yes |
30 | 2014 | 132531 | Roll for the Galaxy | 0.895 | yes |
31 | 2015 | 175155 | Forbidden Stars | 0.893 | yes |
32 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.893 | yes |
33 | 2007 | 31481 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.890 | yes |
34 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.887 | yes |
35 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.887 | no |
36 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.882 | yes |
37 | 1995 | 46 | Medici | 0.880 | no |
38 | 2004 | 9446 | Blue Moon | 0.874 | yes |
39 | 2012 | 140068 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | 0.874 | yes |
40 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.870 | yes |
41 | 2001 | 1345 | Genoa | 0.870 | yes |
42 | 2014 | 146886 | La Granja | 0.864 | no |
43 | 2004 | 11170 | Heroscape Master Set: Rise of the Valkyrie | 0.861 | yes |
44 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.857 | yes |
45 | 2014 | 147154 | Blue Moon Legends | 0.855 | yes |
46 | 2010 | 54361 | Heroscape Master Set: Battle for the Underdark | 0.854 | yes |
47 | 2000 | 883 | Ivanhoe | 0.854 | no |
48 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.847 | no |
49 | 2016 | 152172 | Nova Aetas | 0.846 | no |
50 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.844 | yes |
51 | 2010 | 62222 | Commands & Colors: Napoleonics | 0.842 | yes |
52 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.829 | no |
53 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.829 | no |
54 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.827 | no |
55 | 2016 | 224483 | Exceed Fighting System | 0.824 | no |
56 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.823 | yes |
57 | 2005 | 13642 | Louis XIV | 0.821 | yes |
58 | 2002 | 8095 | Prophecy | 0.820 | yes |
59 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.819 | no |
60 | 2013 | 146439 | BattleLore: Second Edition | 0.816 | yes |
61 | 2011 | 72125 | Eclipse | 0.815 | yes |
62 | 1999 | 204 | Stephenson's Rocket | 0.814 | yes |
63 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.813 | no |
64 | 2016 | 205317 | DOOM: The Board Game | 0.813 | no |
65 | 2007 | 27976 | Heroscape Master Set: Swarm of the Marro | 0.813 | yes |
66 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.811 | yes |
67 | 2019 | 239942 | Black Rose Wars | 0.811 | yes |
68 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.811 | yes |
69 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.811 | yes |
70 | 2009 | 54998 | Cyclades | 0.810 | yes |
71 | 2018 | 221155 | Donning the Purple | 0.810 | yes |
72 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.810 | yes |
73 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.810 | yes |
74 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.809 | yes |
75 | 2001 | 4388 | Rome: Imperium, Circus Maximus, Hannibal vs Rome | 0.807 | yes |
76 | 2017 | 230889 | Aristeia! | 0.806 | yes |
77 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.806 | no |
78 | 2009 | 35634 | Samurai: The Card Game | 0.805 | no |
79 | 2012 | 105551 | Archipelago | 0.805 | yes |
80 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.803 | no |
81 | 2003 | 5404 | Amun-Re | 0.802 | no |
82 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.802 | yes |
83 | 2011 | 108429 | Age of Reason | 0.798 | no |
84 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.797 | yes |
85 | 1979 | 121 | Dune | 0.795 | yes |
86 | 2019 | 295564 | Unmatched Game System | 0.793 | no |
87 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.790 | yes |
88 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.788 | yes |
89 | 2016 | 160010 | Conan | 0.787 | no |
90 | 2001 | 1829 | Risk 2210 A.D. | 0.787 | no |
91 | 2002 | 4098 | Age of Steam | 0.787 | yes |
92 | 2015 | 182028 | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | 0.787 | yes |
93 | 2017 | 195560 | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | 0.786 | no |
94 | 2018 | 207729 | The Edge: Dawnfall | 0.783 | no |
95 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.783 | no |
96 | 2015 | 167698 | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | 0.779 | yes |
97 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.775 | yes |
98 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.770 | yes |
99 | 2019 | 228328 | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev | 0.770 | no |
100 | 2004 | 10908 | Minotaur Lords | 0.769 | yes |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.88 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Gyges is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.991 | no |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.987 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.986 | no |
2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.967 | no |
2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.964 | no |
What games does the model think Gyges is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2010 | 88957 | Avatar: The Board Game | 0.003 | yes |
2008 | 36648 | Pyramid of Pengqueen | 0.004 | yes |
2017 | 209344 | Rewordable | 0.004 | yes |
2014 | 173341 | Loopin' Chewie | 0.004 | yes |
-3000 | 2397 | Backgammon | 0.005 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Roll for the Galaxy | Forbidden Stars | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gloomhaven | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
2 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | City of Remnants | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 504 | Terraforming Mars | Gaia Project | Neon Gods | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
3 | Galaxy Trucker: Anniversary Edition | BattleLore: Second Edition | La Granja | Blood Rage | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | New Frontiers | Crusader Kings |
4 | The Great Zimbabwe | Impulse | Blue Moon Legends | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Spirit Island | Nemesis | Last Bastion |
5 | Archipelago | Patchistory | Imperial Settlers | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers | Scythe | Tau Ceti: Planetary Crisis | Donning the Purple | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
6 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Glass Road | Fields of Arle | Specter Ops | Nova Aetas | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Black Rose Wars |
7 | Pax Porfiriana | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Age of War | Space Cadets: Away Missions | Exceed Fighting System | Too Many Bones | The Edge: Dawnfall | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
8 | Terra Mystica | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Istanbul | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | DOOM: The Board Game | Aristeia! | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
9 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Room 25 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Aeon's End | Fallout | Lords of Hellas | Tapestry |
10 | Il Vecchio | Tomorrow | Akrotiri | Dungeons & Dragons: Temple of Elemental Evil Board Game | New Angeles | Wasteland Express Delivery Service | Underwater Cities | Unmatched Game System |
11 | Space Cadets | Level 7 [Omega Protocol] | Hyperborea | Runebound (Third Edition) | Conan | Here I Stand: 500th Anniversary Edition | Book of Dragons | Rurik: Dawn of Kiev |
12 | Mice and Mystics | Cuba Libre | Thunderstone Advance: Worlds Collide | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Cry Havoc | Dark Souls: The Board Game | Dungeon Alliance | Western Empires |
13 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Dark Darker Darkest | Galaxy Defenders | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Mechs vs. Minions | Path of Light and Shadow | Star Realms: Frontiers | Era: Medieval Age |
14 | Clash of Cultures | Concordia | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Zombicide: Black Plague | Hit Z Road | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Pax Emancipation | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
15 | Andean Abyss | Amerigo | Fire in the Lake | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Immortals | AuZtralia | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
16 | Virgin Queen | Burning Suns | Nations: The Dice Game | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Massive Darkness | Heroes of Terrinoth | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
17 | Zombicide | Prosperity | Antike II | Mombasa | Star Trek: Frontiers | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Renegade | Bios: Origins (Second Edition) |
18 | Android: Netrunner | Thunderstone Advance: Numenera | Shadows of Brimstone: City of the Ancients | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Magic: The Gathering – Arena of the Planeswalkers: Shadows over Innistrad | Dragonfire | Darklight: Memento Mori | Dune |
19 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | A Study in Emerald | Five Tribes | XCOM: The Board Game | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | A Handful of Stars | Empires of the Void II | Zombicide: Invader |
20 | Kemet | City of Iron | Orléans | Kingdom Death: Monster | Dust 1947 | The Smog Riders: Dimensions of Madness | Deep Madness | Aeon's End: Legacy |
21 | Samurai Battles | Forbidden Desert | The Lord of the Ice Garden | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Black Orchestra | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Zombicide: Green Horde | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One |
22 | Thunderstone Advance: Towers of Ruin | Yggdrasil (Second Edition with Asgard Expansion) | The Golden Ages | Empires: Age of Discovery | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Sword & Sorcery | War for Indagar | Armata Strigoi |
23 | Antike Duellum | Bruxelles 1893 | Kill Shakespeare | A Study in Emerald (Second Edition) | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Cutthroat Kingdoms | Heropath: Dragon Roar | Red Alert: Space Fleet Warfare |
24 | Ginkgopolis | Disc Duelers | Onirim (Second Edition) | BATTALIA: The Creation | The Others | Betrayal at Baldur's Gate | Newton | Runaljod: The sound of the runes |
25 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Zpocalypse | AquaSphere | Metal Adventures | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Specter Ops: Broken Covenant | Atlantis Rising (Second Edition) |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Gyges | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.751 |
Gyges | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.728 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.973 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.807 | no |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.782 | yes |
2020 | 281655 | High Frontier 4 All | 0.763 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.738 | yes |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.719 | yes |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.707 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.688 | yes |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.688 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.679 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.676 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.660 | no |
2020 | 317985 | Beyond the Sun | 0.649 | yes |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.632 | no |
2020 | 326767 | Infinity N4: Core Rules | 0.608 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.602 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.572 | no |
2020 | 207486 | Infinities: Defiance of Fate | 0.571 | no |
2020 | 284639 | Gatefall | 0.568 | yes |
2020 | 295604 | Rangers of Shadow Deep: Deluxe Edition | 0.567 | no |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.560 | yes |
2020 | 259061 | Skytear | 0.558 | yes |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.530 | no |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.528 | yes |
2020 | 245224 | La Belle Époque | 0.515 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.514 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.510 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.509 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.498 | no |
2020 | 249275 | The Silver River | 0.489 | no |
2020 | 278292 | Anachrony: Infinity Box | 0.488 | yes |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.483 | yes |
2020 | 299317 | Aeon's End: Outcasts | 0.460 | no |
2020 | 295486 | My City | 0.456 | yes |
2020 | 246911 | Streets Of Steel: Kickin' Asphalt | 0.455 | no |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.450 | no |
2020 | 281257 | Aeolis | 0.440 | no |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.437 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.434 | no |
2020 | 177014 | Giga-Robo! | 0.408 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.402 | no |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.389 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.359 | yes |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.356 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.353 | no |
2020 | 299252 | Here to Slay | 0.352 | no |
2020 | 206480 | Imperial Struggle | 0.352 | yes |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.348 | no |
2020 | 287325 | Exceed: Shovel Knight – Hope Box | 0.347 | no |
2020 | 228602 | Valor & Villainy: Minions of Mordak | 0.345 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.956 | no |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.955 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.914 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.823 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.789 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.783 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.761 | no |
2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.757 | no |
2021 | 259066 | Commands & Colors: Samurai Battles | 0.746 | yes |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.717 | no |
2021 | 332420 | Nexum: Galaxy | 0.707 | no |
2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.704 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.700 | yes |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.698 | no |
2022 | 282775 | The Warp | 0.694 | no |
2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.678 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.659 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.658 | yes |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.657 | no |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.639 | no |
2021 | 260934 | Ignite | 0.636 | no |
2021 | 266448 | Imperium: The Contention | 0.631 | yes |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.623 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.623 | yes |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.620 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.611 | no |
2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.601 | no |
2022 | 275802 | Carnival Zombie: 2nd Edition | 0.593 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.593 | no |
2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.591 | no |
2022 | 330950 | Age of Galaxy | 0.584 | no |
2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.574 | no |
2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.568 | no |
2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.565 | yes |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.562 | no |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.547 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.543 | no |
2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.533 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.532 | yes |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.514 | no |
2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.511 | no |
2021 | 318560 | Witchstone | 0.511 | no |
2021 | 308566 | Nova Lux | 0.510 | no |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.509 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.509 | yes |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.503 | no |
2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.502 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.494 | no |
2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.488 | no |
2021 | 291828 | Car Wars (Sixth Edition) | 0.487 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.480 | no |
2021 | 302413 | Steamwatchers | 0.473 | no |
2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.473 | no |
2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.467 | no |
2022 | 305462 | The Age of Atlantis | 0.467 | no |
2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.462 | no |
2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.462 | yes |
2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.460 | no |
2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.454 | no |
2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.447 | no |
2022 | 292509 | The Shadow Planet: The Board Game | 0.441 | no |
2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.439 | no |
2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.428 | no |
2021 | 193428 | Street Fighter: The Miniatures Game | 0.422 | yes |
2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.421 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.413 | no |
2022 | 313821 | Where Humans Don't Belong | 0.412 | no |
2021 | 329450 | Equinox | 0.409 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.402 | no |
2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.399 | yes |
2021 | 330608 | Cryo | 0.399 | yes |
2021 | 277080 | Titans | 0.397 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.396 | no |
2022 | 281647 | Stellaris: Infinite Legacy | 0.383 | no |
2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.379 | no |
2022 | 254632 | Hyperspace | 0.373 | no |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.373 | no |
2021 | 328871 | Terraforming Mars: Ares Expedition | 0.372 | no |
2021 | 344697 | Warhammer 40,000: Kill Team | 0.369 | no |
2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.365 | no |
2021 | 332386 | Brew | 0.355 | no |
2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.354 | yes |
2021 | 277565 | Ashes to Ashes | 0.351 | no |
2021 | 324657 | Core Space: First Born | 0.347 | no |
2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.345 | no |
2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.343 | no |
2022 | 266018 | Trinidad | 0.330 | no |
2021 | 292899 | Tribune | 0.325 | yes |
2021 | 299450 | Tsukuyumi: Full Moon Down (Second Edition) | 0.323 | yes |
2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.322 | no |
2022 | 299594 | Megapulse | 0.321 | no |
2022 | 271601 | Feed the Kraken | 0.314 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.298 | yes |
2021 | 285192 | Destinies | 0.297 | no |
2022 | 230967 | Verrix | 0.296 | no |
2022 | 281549 | Beast | 0.295 | no |
2021 | 238799 | Messina 1347 | 0.294 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.288 | no |
2021 | 331795 | Robotech: Reconstruction | 0.288 | no |
2021 | 267244 | The Defence of Procyon III | 0.286 | no |